Abstract principles become concrete when you run them. These calculators let you feel the mathematics that underlies the approach — the cost of drawdowns, the power of asymmetric positions, and the amplifying effect of concentrated bets.
Regime Playbook →A 40% drawdown doesn't require a 40% recovery. It requires 67%. The arithmetic is asymmetric — losses compound faster than gains unwind them. These two tools show why protecting capital is not defensive thinking. It is the most aggressive long-term strategy available.
Recovery mathematics
Drawdown Recovery Calculator
Compounding over time
Compounding Simulator — With vs. Without Drawdown
The Edge is designed to be asymmetric: capped cost, uncapped benefit. A correctly structured put doesn't just protect — it generates capital exactly when other assets are cheapest. These tools show how the payoff shape changes with structure, and how it reshapes the distribution of 20-year outcomes.
Payoff structure
Convexity Payoff Builder — Put Option at Expiry
Distribution of outcomes
Asymmetry Machine — 20-Year Return Distribution (2,000 simulations)
Monte Carlo simulation. Assumes lognormal returns, annual rebalancing, tail events at 3× modeled frequency. Results are illustrative.
A 2% position in a 10-bagger moves the portfolio by 18%. A 15% position in the same idea moves it by 135%. Diversification limits loss — but it also limits the compounding that only exceptional businesses can deliver. The question is not whether to concentrate, but where to draw the line.
Position size vs. portfolio impact
Concentration Impact Calculator — Single Position Returns
Twenty-five years. Four portfolio structures. The same crashes, the same recoveries — but the compounding gap widens with every cycle. Not because one approach takes more risk, but because avoiding deep drawdowns means never needing a large recovery.
25-year compound growth — indexed to 100 at Jan 2000
Aeternia model parameters — adjust to see how the thesis holds
Annual premium from quality-factor tilt vs. cap-weighted index
Annual drag from systematic put-option overlay on portfolio
What the hedge returns when S&P 500 falls more than 20% in a year
Crisis zoom — % from pre-crisis peak
Peak Mar 2000. S&P fell 49% to trough in Oct 2002.
60/40 computed from S&P 500 total return and Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index annual returns 2000–2024. Permanent Portfolio computed from published 25/25/25/25 allocation (stocks / LT Treasuries / gold / cash). All Weather computed from published allocation (30% stocks · 40% LT bonds · 15% IT bonds · 7.5% gold · 7.5% commodities). Component data from publicly available index returns. Aeternia is a parametric model — not historical data — driven entirely by the sliders above; adjust assumptions to stress-test the thesis. Not a representation of actual or future performance.
Everything above showed the parts. This assembles them: choose a posture, a concentration, a hedge budget and today’s regime — the machine renders the full book and immediately stress-tests it. The core is structural — the strategy is the shape of the book, not the picks. The edge is shown at full instrument depth, because the mechanics are the point.
1 · Posture
2 · Core concentration
3 · Hedge budget
4 · Regime at assembly
Playbook taxonomy — the options lens on the Kairos composite (see the playbook mapping). Post-audit this defaults from the live reading.
The assembled book
Consequences — every assembly is immediately stress-tested
Four storms, this exact book
Peak-to-trough drawdowns from the crisis-zoom charts above, recomputed for the current assembly — the market column is the S&P’s own fall from its pre-crisis high.
20-year parametric curve — this book vs the unhedged version of itself
Why the unhedged line can win: in a mostly-calm tape, insurance is a cost with no fire. The hedged line isn’t buying a higher ending — it’s buying the floor and the storm behavior above. Which one compounds better depends entirely on the storms you actually get, and no one chooses their tape.
Computed client-side from the same parametric assumptions disclosed above — not historical data, not a representation of actual or future performance. Structures shown are index/volatility instruments parameterized for illustration — not recommendations; core positions are archetypes, not securities.